The San Francisco 49ers come into town to play the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC Championship game as 4 point favorites. This is consistent with how national media views the prospects of the Falcons. The Falcons are the Number 1 seed in the NFC, but have not convinced the majority of pundits they deserve the status.
There are a number of reasons for doubting their credibility. Arguably they were given a soft schedule, but they did whip the Super Bowl Champions New York Giants 34-0. They won seven of their regular season games by 4 points or less. They cannot stop the running quarter back. Cam Newton of the Carolina Panthers twice decimated the Falcons defense with his running and passing prowess.
In their nail biting win over Seattle (30-28 despite trailing with 31 seconds left on the clock) rookie Russell Wilson concentrated on his passing game with great effect, but still managed to rush for 60 yards.
In last week’s decisive win over the Green Bay Packers, Colin Kaepernick accounted for 444 yards and 4 touchdowns. A large portion of his yardage was running the ball for a record breaking 183 yards. He is a bigger, stronger version of Russell Wilson, more in keeping with Cam Newton but faster!
Wilson attempted nine throws to his tight end Zach Miller who accumulated 142 yards including a touchdown. The 49ers tight end Vernon Davis is a better player than Miller, and their running back Frank Gore is just as dangerous as Seattle’s Marshawn Lynch.
Admittedly, the Falcons contained Lynch, their primary objective. But in the second half, Seattle exposed the gap between the linebackers (who were cheating up to defend the run) and the secondary. That, breakdowns and mistackles led to 28 second-half points, including 21 in the fourth quarter. Stark contrast: During the regular season Nolan’s defense allowed an average of only 8.69 points in the second half of games and 5.25 in the fourth quarter.
49ers receiver Michael Crabtree was one of the top draft picks a couple of seasons ago, but had not really fulfilled his potential until hooking up with Kaepernick in mid-season. He has scored 7 touchdowns in his last seven games, and presents another threat to the Atlanta defense.
Further aiding San Francisco’s cause will be the condition of John Abraham who at the age of 34 led Atlanta with 10 sacks. (No other Falcon had more than four.) The defensive right end departed from Sunday’s game in the second quarter after reaggravating a left ankle injury.
With Abraham on the sideline a largely unchallenged Wilson completed his first 10 passes of the second half for 185 yards and two touch downs, and very nearly led the Seahawks to a miraculous comeback from 20-0 down. Abraham has vowed to play on Sunday, but it’s unlikely he will be 100%.
The 49ers have also built a reputation as one of the best defenses in the NFL under Jim Harbaugh, and it has been well-earned. San Francisco’s front seven features a dominating, physical line and speedy, hard-hitting linebackers. Many teams have struggled to figure out how to reach even the second level against their attack.
By now you may be wondering why the Falcons would bother to show up when facing seemingly insurmountable odds. Let’s not forget the 49ers are not invincible; they lost four games in the regular season and the Falcons have their own formidable weapons on the offensive side of the ball.
Roddy White and Julio Jones are arguably the best receiving tandem in the NFL. Tony Gonzalez may be 36 years old, but remains one of the greatest tight ends the game has ever seen. His career stats over 16 years may well confirm he’s the greatest tight end of all time.
Michael Turner and Jacquiz Rodgers proved to be useful foils for each other against Seattle’s defense, and Turner displayed signs of his once domineering role for the Atlanta offense. However it’s unlikely they will be as effective facing the superior 49ers offense and much will depend on Matt Ryan’s ability to find his receivers while avoiding costly interceptions.
The Keys to the game:
- Can the Falcons’ offensive line protect Ryan?
- Can the Falcons contain Kaepernick within the pocket? A fit Abraham is absolutely essential to achieve this objective.
- Can the Falcons restrict Gore, Davis and Crabtree sufficiently? Do you remember who the other 49ers receiver is? None other than Randy Moss. He may be past his prime, but he retains a nuisance value.
- Can Atlanta’s secondary raise their game? We have two corner backs, Robinson and Samuel, who can’t tackle, but rely on the immaculate interception. It’s scary to watch.
- Atlanta has the edge on field goal kicking.
- Turnovers and rescricting penalties.
- Crowd noise. We have home field advantage and Kaepernick has had problems in opposing domes with audibles.
Can I pick a winner? Atlanta doesn’t quite have the personnel to prevent San Francisco scoring the points to outgun the Falcons. San Francisco’s defense has the edge over Atlanta’s offense. John Abraham will play, but I believe he is suffering from a high ankle sprain and regrettably won’t be a factor. Judging from regular season games, defensive coordinator Mike Nolan has yet to devise a plan to minimize the running quarter back. Consequently my heart and soul picks Atlanta, but my head envisions a comfortable San Francisco win 34-20.