World Cup Preview

 Once again we’re on the eve of one of the greatest tournaments in the sporting calendar: football’s World Cup. Contrary to baseball’s World Series this is genuinely a world tournament and following two years of qualification we are now down to the last 32 teams.

 One word of warning before you slip down the bookies to place your bet on who is going to win the tournament;18 world cups have been staged since its inception in 1930 and only 7 nations have won the damn thing. Brazil has won 5 times (runners-up twice,) Italy 4 times (runners-up twice) Germany 3 times (runners-up 4 times), Argentina (runners-up twice) and Uruguay twice a piece, France (runners-up once) and England once each. Four nations have appeared in the final but have never won the trophy: Czechoslovakia (1934 & 1962), Hungary (1938 & 1954), and Sweden (1958) and Holland (1974 & 1978).

 Three countries from South America have won the trophy and four European teams have won the golden chalice. However, only one nation has won the tournament outside its hemisphere: Brazil in 1958 (Sweden), 1994 (USA), and 2002 (Japan). So does that exclude any of the European teams from winning in South Africa? The talking heads have predicted for years that an African team is going to break the stranglehold of Europe and South America dominance and claim the trophy. There are a record six African teams competing in the finals: South Africa (the host nation), Nigeria, Algeria, Ghana, Cameroon and Ivory Coast. Cameroon holds the distinction of achieving the best finish of the African countries by losing in the quarter final to England in 1990. Six host nations have won the cup but South Africa could suffer the ignominy of being the first host nation not to reach the second round knockout stage. Ivory Coast appeared to be the connoisseur’s choice from Africa but the potential loss of their star striker, Drogba, to a broken arm eliminates them to my mind from contention. Quite honestly I only expect Nigeria to make the second round from the African nations.

 Correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe all seven winners of the world cup are appearing in the same tournament for the first time. The only nation I can realistically foresee joining the elite group is Spain. They are the current European champions and have an excellent pedigree. However, the bookies have made them favorites which may place undue pressure on their Latin temperament. France is engaged in its usual pre-tournament theatricals, with rumors circulating about squad unrest and general lack of confidence. This has the hallmark of France blowing smoking up their proverbial arse. Argentina has some magnificent players in their squad including the mercurial Lionel Messi, but they do have a loose cannon in the generous shape of Maradona as coach. Uruguay is twice winners of the tournament back in 1930 and 1950. Diego Forlan is a very good striker playing in Europe, but they don’t have the strength in depth to sustain a challenge.

 I am a US citizen but I’m originally from the UK and therefore have a vested interest in England and USA. America’s main threat emanates from Landon Donovan who is a major star in the MLS. Nevertheless his three month loan to Everton in the English Premiership confirmed that he is a good squad player; nothing more. England has just lost its captain, Rio Ferdinand, to a knee injury, but it is not a catastrophe. They have adequate replacements which could not have been said with any optimism if they had lost Wayne Rooney to injury. Rooney is the key to England making any kind of progress in the tournament, but I would be more optimistic about their chances if their Italian coach, Capello, had settled on a consistent formation. Holland has a rich vein of talent in their squad which unfortunately has a habit of imploding at major tournaments. Portugal has the magnificent ego of Ronaldo at its disposal but the supporting cast may not be enough to sustain a challenge.

 Finally we are left with the three powerhouses of world cups: Brazil, Germany and Italy. They have appeared in twenty finals between them  winning the cup twelve times. Germany was forced to revamp their squad when the captain Michael Ballack was ruled out of the tournament following an injury in the FA Cup Final. Typically, the Germans play methodical,  arguably mechanical, football which is not pretty to watch but very effective. Italy love to play on the counter-attack but are predictably vulnerable during the early stages of a tournament when they are liable to underestimate inferior opponents. Brazil has a winning record second to none and play with arrogance and flair you would expect from five-time winners.

 My sixteen to reach the second round knock-out stage are: France, Mexico, Argentina, Nigeria, England, Slovenia, Serbia, Germany, Holland, Denmark, Italy, Slovakia, Brazil, Portugal, Spain and Chile.

 My finalists are Brazil and Germany with Brazil using the unorthodox to overcome mechanics. My golden boot winner will be Lionel Messi. Watch this space for more comments as the tournament unfolds.

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