Dirt Bags?????

On New Years Day, The Atlanta Falcons managed to slide into the NFL playoffs via a wild card with a 10-6 record on the season, and now have to travel to play the New York Giants in the first round on Sunday afternoon.

They finished the season on a high note by demolishing division rivals Tamp Bay Buccaneers 45-24. The Falcons were leading 42-0 with ten minutes left of the first half, and Coach Mike Smith brought a halt to proceedings by replacing many of his starters. Michael Turner, for example, rushed for 172 yards in the first half which was more yardage than in his previous three games combined. Before Falcon fans get carried away on a cloud of euphoria let us not forget the drubbing we suffered the previous Sunday at the hands of New Orleans who blew us away 48-16.

The question that springs to my mind is what team will show up in New York. Unfortunately, whenever the Falcons play a team with an elite quarter back in the shape of a Brady, Brees or Rodgers they give up a bunch of points. Falcons’ pass rush defense cannot prevent quality quarter backs from picking them apart.

New York’s quarterback Eli Manning is not quite in the elite group which included his elder brother Peyton until he suffered a neck injury preventing him from playing in the 2011 season. But on his day Eli is a very good pocket passer who can rely on two excellent wide receivers Smith and Cruz. The Giants are equally adept at stopping the opposing quarter back via two outstanding defensive ends Justin Tuck and Pierre –Paul. The Frenchman (he probably isn’t) ran up 16 sacks on the season so Matty Ice beware.

Jason Tuck referred to the Falcons’ offensive line as “dirt bags” because they have a habit of playing through the referee’s whistle. I know what he meant if you don’t, but more importantly it provided a cute little title for this blog. The Giants’ defense doesn’t have very impressive numbers, but Tuck missed a major portion of the regular season and is now back to his tongue-lashing best.

You may well ask why the Falcons should bother to show up if the Giants hold all the aces. They finished the season with a 9-7 record proving to Falcon fans that the Giants can be beaten, and their Achilles heel is failure to prevent the opposing team’s running game.  On his day Michael Turner could be Atlanta’s trump card. He has not been as effective as the previous two seasons but there could be reasons for his apparent decline. Firstly he has played the past few games with a nagging groin injury; secondly he has missed the injured full back Ovie Mughelli who was so adept at blasting holes in the opposition’s defenses for Turner to run through.

Turner showed encouraging signs against Tampa that he may be back to full fitness and the Falcons also made a tactical switch electing to play second string running back Jason Snelling at full back at Turner’s request. We shouldn’t get too carried away, but Turner’s 172 yards against Tampa was pretty impressive notwithstanding the hapless Buccaneers waving the white flag after five minutes of play.

The Giants’ running backs are not too shabby either and they rely on a useful tandem in the shape of Bradshaw and Jacobs. Falcons’ wider receivers White and Jones will present a serious threat to New York magnificently supported by future hall of famer Tony Gonzalez at tight end. One thing worries me about Gonzalez however. He went AWOL against the Packers in last season’s playoff game and I believe he owes us (the fans) redemption.

The Falcons are making an appearance in the playoffs for the third time in the last four seasons, but have yet to win a playoff game. In contrast, the Giants won the Super Bowl in 2008 by defeating the previously unbeaten New England Patriots which on paper gives them the edge on their post season record. Furthermore one could argue that home field advantage will favor the Giants. The Falcons are a dome team having to play outdoors in New York in January, and the traditional blustery conditions can play havoc with a quarter back’s throwing technique.

At the end of the day (terrible cliché I know) the team with the least number of turnovers will win the football game, and I’m sure Ryan has recurring nightmares of his attempted pass being intercepted by a Packers safety which led to a game winning touchdown in last season’s dramatic loss.

Allow to me conclude with some boring statistics which should satisfy NFL nerds around the world: New York is ranked 32nd in rushing (89.2ypg.)Atlanta is No.6 versus the run (97.0 ypg.) Manning passed for 4,933 yards and 29 TDs. Falcons pass defense ranked 20th. Giants pass defense ranked 29th while Falcons QB Matt Ryan passed for a franchise record 4,177 yards and 29 TD. Giants coach Coughlin is 8-7 in the playoffs. Falcons coach is 0-2.

A season’s statistics can sometimes be misleading since they don’t factor in injuries to key players. The post season is all about the form and fitness of players now. Atlanta’s running back is fit and raring to go, but so is New York’s Justin Tuck which will improve their defense immensely as illustrated against the Dallas Cowboys.

I do hope I’m wrong but I’m taking the Giants to win a close game in the fourth quarter leaning heavily on Eli Manning’s post season success and experience.

In the other playoff games, New Orleans should just hold off Detroit in a game which promises to be shoot out between quarter backs Drew Brees and Matthew Stafford both of whom threw for over 5000 yards in the regular season.

In the AFC, Cincinnati could upset Houston in a battle between two rookie quarter backs Andy Dalton and T.J. Yates; providing Dalton has recovered from a bout of flu.

Denver and Pittsburgh appears to be a mismatch between Tim Tebow who has lost his last three starts and two time Super Bowl winner Ben Rothlisburger. However big Ben has a high ankle sprain and will be hobbling around the field. The Steelers will play a rookie running back, but they have the best defense in the league which should seem them through in a low scoring encounter.

The following is a breakdown of the playoff field.

Team           vs.W   vs.L vs.E  Overall
Green Bay      5-0    5-1   5-0    15-1
New Orleans    6-1    6-2   1-0    13-3
Baltimore      6-1    4-2   2-1    12-4
San Francisco  4-1    7-0   2-2    13-3
Houston        4-3    6-2   0-1    10-6
Pittsburgh     5-4    7-0   0-0    12-4
Falcons        2-4    7-1   1-1    10-6
N.Y. Giants    1-3    3-3   5-1    9-7
Denver         1-4    3-2   4-2    8-8
Cincinnati     1-6    7-0   1-1    9-7
New England    0-2    7-1   6-0    13-3
Detroit        0-5    5-0   5-1    10-6

 

Does it make me feel a little better about the Falcons’ chances?

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