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The San Francisco 49ers come into town to play the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC Championship game as 4 point favorites. This is consistent with how national media views the prospects of the Falcons. The Falcons are the Number 1 seed in the NFC, but have not convinced the majority of pundits they deserve the status.

There are a number of reasons for doubting their credibility. Arguably they were given a soft schedule, but they did whip the Super Bowl Champions New York Giants 34-0. They won seven of their regular season games by 4 points or less. They cannot stop the running quarter back. Cam Newton of the Carolina Panthers twice decimated the Falcons defense with his running and passing prowess.

In their nail biting win over Seattle (30-28 despite trailing with 31 seconds left on the clock) rookie Russell Wilson concentrated on his passing game with great effect, but still managed to rush for 60 yards.

In last week’s decisive win over the Green Bay Packers, Colin Kaepernick accounted for 444 yards and 4 touchdowns. A large portion of his yardage was running the ball for a record breaking 183 yards. He is a bigger, stronger version of Russell Wilson, more in keeping with Cam Newton but faster!

Wilson attempted nine throws to his tight end Zach Miller who accumulated 142 yards including a touchdown. The 49ers tight end Vernon Davis is a better player than Miller, and their running back Frank Gore is just as dangerous as Seattle’s Marshawn Lynch.

Admittedly, the Falcons contained Lynch, their primary objective. But in the second half, Seattle exposed the gap between the linebackers (who were cheating up to defend the run) and the secondary. That, breakdowns and mistackles led to 28 second-half points, including 21 in the fourth quarter. Stark contrast: During the regular season Nolan’s defense allowed an average of only 8.69 points in the second half of games and 5.25 in the fourth quarter.

49ers receiver Michael Crabtree was one of the top draft picks a couple of seasons ago, but had not really fulfilled his potential until hooking up with Kaepernick in mid-season. He has scored 7 touchdowns in his last seven games, and presents another threat to the Atlanta defense.

Further aiding San Francisco’s cause will be the condition of John Abraham who at the age of 34 led Atlanta with 10 sacks. (No other Falcon had more than four.) The defensive right end departed from Sunday’s game in the second quarter after reaggravating a left ankle injury.

With Abraham on the sideline a largely unchallenged Wilson completed his first 10 passes of the second half for 185 yards and two touch downs, and very nearly led the Seahawks to a miraculous comeback from 20-0 down. Abraham has vowed to play on Sunday, but it’s unlikely he will be 100%.

The 49ers have also built a reputation as one of the best defenses in the NFL under Jim Harbaugh, and it has been well-earned. San Francisco’s front seven features a dominating, physical line and speedy, hard-hitting linebackers. Many teams have struggled to figure out how to reach even the second level against their attack.

By now you may be wondering why the Falcons would bother to show up when facing seemingly insurmountable odds. Let’s not forget the 49ers are not invincible; they lost four games in the regular season and the Falcons have their own formidable weapons on the offensive side of the ball.

Roddy White and Julio Jones are arguably the best receiving tandem in the NFL. Tony Gonzalez may be 36 years old, but remains one of the greatest tight ends the game has ever seen. His career stats over 16 years may well confirm he’s the greatest tight end of all time.

Michael Turner and Jacquiz Rodgers proved to be useful foils for each other against Seattle’s defense, and Turner displayed signs of his once domineering role for the Atlanta offense. However it’s unlikely they will be as effective facing the superior 49ers offense and much will depend on Matt Ryan’s ability to find his receivers while avoiding costly interceptions.

The Keys to the game:

1. Can the Falcons’ offensive line protect Ryan?
2. Can the Falcons contain Kaepernick within the pocket? A fit Abraham is absolutely essential to achieve this objective.
3. Can the Falcons restrict Gore, Davis and Crabtree sufficiently? Do you remember who the other 49ers receiver is? None other than Randy Moss. He may be past his prime, but he retains a nuisance value.
4. Can Atlanta’s secondary raise their game? We have two corner backs, Robinson and Samuel, who can’t tackle, but rely on the immaculate interception. It’s scary to watch.
5. Atlanta has the edge on field goal kicking.
6. Turnovers and rescricting penalties.
7. Crowd noise. We have home field advantage and Kaepernick has had problems in opposing domes with audibles.

Can I pick a winner? Atlanta doesn’t quite have the personnel to prevent San Francisco scoring the points to outgun the Falcons. San Francisco’s defense has the edge over Atlanta’s offense. John Abraham will play, but I believe he is suffering from a high ankle sprain and regrettably won’t be a factor. Judging from regular season games, defensive coordinator Mike Nolan has yet to devise a plan to minimize the running quarter back. Consequently my heart and soul picks Atlanta, but my head envisions a comfortable San Francisco win 34-20.

Rise Up Falcon Fans, Rise Up!

Atlanta Falcons play Seattle Seahawks in a division playoff game to-morrow (Sunday) at the Georgia Dome. The Falcons had the best record of any team (13-1) in the regular season, and ordinarily they should be favorites to win. That they are not is a symptom of their poor playoff record under Head Coach Mike Smith and quarter back Matt Ryan.

Matt Ryan’s first trip to the playoffs was not a pleasant one. The Falcons finished the 2008 regular season with a record of 11–5, and the fifth seed in the playoffs. Atlanta was crushed in the wild-card round by eventual NFC champion Arizona Cardinals, 30–24, in Glendale, Ariz. (2008)

Matt Ryan’s second playoff appearance wasn’t any better than the first. After a regular season in which the Falcons went 13-3 and secured the top overall seed in the NFC playoffs, the Packers sacked Atlanta in the Divisional playoff game scoring a Green Bay playoff record 48 points en route to a Super Bowl winning season. (2010)

Atlanta’s playoff losing streak reached four games with a 24-2 shellacking at the hand of the eventual Super Bowl champion New York Giants at MetLife Stadium in the Wild Card game. The game featured the first safety in NFL postseason history. (2011)

I guess there is consolation in the fact that the last two teams to defeat them in the playoffs were the eventual Super Bowl Champions. It would appear their main obstacle is now a physiological one and not merely their opponents. Seattle is the hot team in the playoffs having won 8 of their last 9 games which included defeating Washington Redskins in the Wild Card Round last Saturday.

Atlanta’s main strength is their triumvirate receiving crew comprising Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez. Gonzalez is arguably the best tight end to have played the game, but the future hall of famer has never won a playoff game in his illustrious career with Kansas and more recently The Falcons.

Seattle believes they have the corner backs to take on White and Jones one on one. They’re big enough at 6’ 4’’ and 6’ 3” respectively, but I’m sure Falcons’ receivers will relish the challenge. The Falcons’ running game is a major concern since Michael Turner is not nearly as effective as in previous seasons, but perhaps in tandem with Jacquiz Rodgers they can cause enough problems for the Seattle defense.

In contrast one of Seattle’s strengths lies in the running game. Rookie quarter back Russell Wilson is more than capable of running amok, and tail back Marshain Lynch is one of the top three running backs in the NFL. Atlanta’s defense has problems stopping the run down the middle, and does not relish a running quarterback.

The outcome of the game could rest on the health of two ankles. John Abraham injured his ankle in the last regular game of the season, but hopefully with an extra week’s recovery time he should be good to go. Lynch injured his ankle playing on the cabbage patch that Washington laughingly calls a playing field. The Seattle media has been somewhat evasive in their reporting on Lynch’s ankle, but he will play.

I’m a little nervous about Atlanta’s chances in this game because I’m not confident that we have the defensive tools to stop Seattle’s running game. Seattle’s defense is also ranked one of the best in the NFL, and good defenses usually outlast good offenses. Typically the team that commits the least turn overs usually wins. Reluctantly I’m taking Seattle to win 24-17, but I sincerely hope I’m wrong. Go Falcons!

Postscript: That was a nail-biter if I ever saw one. The Falcons were leading 27-7 entering the 4th quarter and proceeded to surrender 3 touchdowns for Seattle to lead for the first time with 31 seconds remaining on the clock.

Jacquiz Rodgers returned the Seahawks kick off for 27 yards. Ryan threw a 22 yard pass to Harry Douglas. He then threw a 19 yard pass to his favorite receiver Tony Gonzalez who managed to reach Seattle’s 30 yard line leaving kicker Matt Bryant with a 49 yard field goal attempt.

Seattle’s coach called the now customary time out as Bryant was about to attempt the field goal. Bryant went through with his kick to give him a sighter much to the consternation of gum-chewing Pete Carroll.

Bryant steadied himself once more and placed his kick immaculately between the goal posts. It’s over; we’ve won! Not quite! There were 8 seconds remaining, and it appeared the Falcons were determined to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Falcons Head Coach Mike Smith called for a grubber kick with a low trajectory from the ensuing kick off, but the punter turned it into a on-side kick which unaccountably gave Seattle an opportunity to win the game.

Rookie Russell Wilson’s first pass moved his team closer to the Atlanta half of the field, but with only 6 seconds left, his second throw had to be a hail Mary into the Atlanta endzone which happily was caught by Atlanta receiver Julio Jones.

Watching and supporting the Falcons is certainly not for the faint-hearted. Bring on the San Francisco 49ers for next week’s NFC Championship decider,and a  prescription for valium wouldn’t go amiss.

In a recent poll undertaken across America, 43.7% of the recipients voted that Tim Tebow’s recent success could be attributed to divine intervention. Unfortunately God must have forgotten that the Denver Broncos were playing the New England Patriots on Saturday as opposed to the regular Sunday gig and they were pummeled unmercifully 45-10 with Tom Brady throwing a record equaling six touchdowns in the playoffs.

Tebow didn’t play badly, but the team was overwhelmed by the Patriots. New England’s coaching staff naturally watched the film of the Broncos win over Pittsburgh last week who allowed Tebow the luxury of throwing continually down the field which ultimately led to several touch downs and a shock win over a team boasting the best defense in the NFL.

Tebow was denied those channels against the Patriots and his triple option style of play was nullified by a superior team on the day. He completed just nine of 26 passing attempts for 136 yards, but none of the downfield throws that marked his heroics in that unforgettable thriller.

 Tebow commented after the game: “I’ve learned a lot. Every single game, including this one, was a learning opportunity,” he said. “When we have an opportunity to come back here, we can handle it differently.”

On a positive note he said he was looking forward to the offseason and he cited several areas he is targeting for improvement: consistency, footwork fundamentals, leadership skills, and reading defenses.

Tebow can take some consolation in the fact that he has some impressive company sitting on the losers’ bench alongside him. Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers-two of the three so-called elite quarterbacks in the league (Tom Brady being the other) also lost on the weekend.

That leaves us with the New York Giants traveling to San Francisco to play for the NFC Championship, and New England hosting Baltimore in the AFC Championship for the right to play in the Super Bowl. On a brighter note for Tebow, the Broncos’ management confirmed that he will be their starting quarter back for next season.

On a local level the Atlanta Falcons announced the hire of Dirk Koetter as their new offensive coordinator. Judging by comments from the local fish rapper Atlanta fans are not enamored by his appointment. He served as OC at Jacksonville for the last four years where he admittedly didn’t have much to work with.

It’s also no coincidence that Atlanta Head Coach Mike Smith was defensive coordinator in Koetter’s first season at Jacksonville. It does reek of the old boys’ network, but I’m prepared to give Coach Smith the benefit of the doubt for now.

Arthur Blank was the co-founder and owner of Home Depot which made him a billionaire. He sold the franchise to some jerk who proceeded to downgrade a successful proven product and allow Lowe’s to make serious inroads into their market. By this time Arthur had moved on and decided to plough his hard earned billions into buying the Atlanta Falcons.

During his tenure he fired incumbent head coach Dan Reeves and hired three successive head coaches: Jim Mora, Bobby Petrino and Mike Smith. Mora was the king of BS and was out the door after two seasons. Petrino proved to be a weasel and fled the team following an unsuccessful tenure comprising 13 games, and returned to the College ranks in Arkansas (hog heaven which seemed appropriate.) Smith was a surprise hire since his previous coaching experience was confined to defensive co-coordinator at the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Thomas Dimitroff was also hired as general manager and he brought with him excellent credentials as head of recruiting for the New England Patriots. They drafted Matt Ryan as their franchise quarter back, and together they compiled four successive winning seasons with an appearance in the playoffs in three of the last four seasons. But here comes the rub; they have yet to win a playoff game and today proved to be no exception. The New York Giants won in a canter by 24-2, and they are a very mediocre team. Their 9-7 record in the regular season proves my point.

Apart from a defensive effort in the first half, the Falcons were hapless, and made the Giants look like Super Bowl contenders which they are not! Michael Turner was a non-entity, Ryan dithered and dallied, Gonzalez and White were non-factors and the Dirt Bags (the offensive line) played like choir boys and were unceremoniously crushed.

The players were not helped by some inane coaching by Mike Smith who elected twice in the game to go for 4^th down on inches using quarter back Ryan as a battering ram; only to fail miserably on both occasions. On the second attempt we were only trailing 10-2 and a field goal would have given us a great chance to come back and win. Instead, the Giants regained the momentum and quickly scored a touchdown winning the game without breaking stride.

In a pre-game newspaper interview, Arthur Blank admitted he was pleased with four successive winning seasons, but was well aware the franchise needed to take the next step and win a game in the playoffs. Well I’m sure he is very disappointed. So what does he need to do drag this team to the next level which is currently occupied by the Patriots, Steelers, Packers and Saints?

Personally, I don’t believe Coach Smith and Matt Ryan are capable of taking this franchise to a Super Bowl which has got to be the ultimate goal. Two failed attempts at the “quarterback sneak” revealed the ineptitude of Coach Smith for calling the play and Ryan for failing to execute. My knee jerk reaction would be to fire Smith and his coaching staff and trade Matt Ryan.

Unfortunately neither action is realistic since the drafting of Julio Jones for four future picks has nullified any quality acquisitions from that quarter. Neither does the salary cap  give us much latitude in signing free agents, so my recommended changes must be practical:

• The offensive and defensive coordinators must be shown the door. The process has already begun with DC Brian VanGorder leaving to take a similar position with Auburn. It is imperative that OC Murlarkey is terminated because he is old school, unimaginative and negative.
• The offensive line is a shambles. Center McClure is 35 years old and needs replacing. Left tackle Sam Baker (a former No1 draft pick) is a huge failure and has to go.  Clabo and Blaylock should be the only ones retained.
• Expensive acquisitions Dunta Robinson (CB) and Ray Edwards (DE) signed in free agency have not performed commensurate with their over inflated salaries and need to be released.
• The shelf life of a running back in the NFL is approximately 3-4 seasons. Michael Turner has played 3 seasons with the Falcons and is clearly on the decline. He needs to be replaced with fresh blood and new ideas.
• A number of starters are free agents; most of whom should not be re-signed. Safety Thomas DeCould can’t tackle and hopefully will not return. Middle line backer Curtis Lofton is a good player but not a game changer and should be allowed to seek employment elsewhere. Defensive end John Abraham will be too expensive and it’s time for him to seek new pastures. Brent Grimes (CB) is a great athlete but too small to cover big tight ends and receivers. At 5′ 9” he can’t cover a Jimmy Graham at 6′ 6”.
• Number 1 receiver Roddy White drops too many passes to be considered a franchise player and should be traded for a left tackle.
• Tony Gonzalez is a great player but at 35 years old he is in the twilight of  his career, and it was a mistake to award him another contract for 1 year at $7 million.

The nuances of the salary cap are difficult to comprehend and I’m not sure if releasing Robinson, Edwards and Turner would free up their salaries to sign new players. Nevertheless the team needs fixing big time. Are you listening Mr. Blank?